September 2026 Market Commentary
The September 2026 Market Commentary looks at signs that Canada’s recession may be nearing an end. Strong commodity prices are supporting industry, with mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction growing 1.0% in May and 6.5% over the past year, the strongest growth of any sector of the Canadian economy. Employment also rose by 75,100 in July, following gains in May and June, lifting annual job growth to 0.9%. That is ahead of the 0.6% growth in Canada’s working age population, the first time job growth has outpaced population growth since September 2023.
The commentary then turns to the United States, where the consumer price index rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. Annual inflation eased to 3.4%, down from a three-year high of 4.2% in May, and core inflation slowed to 2.5%. Over the longer term, the authors expect upward pressure on long-term interest rates to persist, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield potentially moving above 5%, and describe artificial intelligence as a durable secular trend that brings both opportunity and uncertainty for investors.
To read the full commentary, download the PDF below.